— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
96¢
aifs
55¢
eps
54¢
nbm
53¢
wn2
38¢
icon
27¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,437 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.597 vs climatology 8.737.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261027-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape