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KSFO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
96%
AIFS
55%
EPS
54%
WN2
38%
ICON
27%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 61.7¢Risks 61.70u
VS
ICONNO 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.30u · ICON −38.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 14:4610-20 17:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:0025.4%55.4%34.7%96.0%27.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0025.4%55.4%34.7%96.0%27.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0025.4%55.4%34.7%96.0%27.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0025.4%55.4%34.7%96.0%27.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0025.4%55.4%34.7%96.0%27.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0025.4%55.4%34.7%96.0%27.4%
2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:0025.4%54.3%34.7%96.0%27.4%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:0025.4%54.3%34.7%96.0%27.4%
2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:0054.9%54.3%38.4%96.0%27.4%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:0054.9%54.3%38.4%96.0%27.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES96%80.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single55%70.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%70.3°F7.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 238%68.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON27%63.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗