— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
95¢
aifs
87¢
icon
76¢
eps
72¢
hres
69¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
wn2
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F28¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-15T16:20:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape