KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

76%

72%

69%

40%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

WN2NO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.80u · WN2 −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:13+00:00	53.2%	54.2%	68.7%	51.4%	61.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	53.2%	54.2%	71.2%	51.4%	61.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	53.2%	54.2%	71.2%	51.4%	61.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	53.2%	54.2%	71.2%	51.4%	61.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	53.2%	54.2%	71.2%	51.4%	61.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	71.2%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	71.2%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	71.2%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	71.2%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	58.0%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	60.3%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	60.3%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	60.3%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	60.3%	54.2%	66.9%	64.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	82.5%	67.3%	57.1%	77.7%	79.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	82.5%	67.3%	80.5%	77.7%	79.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	82.5%	67.3%	80.5%	77.7%	79.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	82.5%	67.3%	80.5%	77.7%	79.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	82.5%	67.3%	80.5%	77.7%	79.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	85.0%	67.3%	80.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	85.0%	67.3%	80.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	85.0%	67.3%	80.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	85.0%	67.3%	80.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	85.0%	67.3%	80.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	85.0%	71.3%	82.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00	85.0%	71.3%	82.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	85.0%	71.3%	82.5%	75.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	84.4%	70.6%	82.5%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	84.4%	70.6%	82.5%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	84.4%	72.4%	82.5%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	84.4%	72.4%	82.5%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	84.4%	72.4%	61.4%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	84.4%	72.4%	61.4%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	84.4%	72.4%	61.4%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	84.4%	72.4%	61.4%	75.3%	67.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	61.4%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	61.4%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	61.4%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	61.4%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	86.6%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	86.6%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	86.6%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	86.6%	72.4%	39.8%	68.7%	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	70.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	69.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	66.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗