daily prop · Sacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Thu Sep 17

Sacramento high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

settled · observed 75

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 100¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		88¢
aifs		71¢
eps		70¢
hres		66¢
ndfd		56¢
nbm		44¢
rrfs		25¢
icon		17¢
hrrr		14¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:00 · settled 2026-09-18T13:36:44+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape