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KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 17 · 02:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
88%
AIFS
71%
EPS
70%
HRES
66%
ICON
17%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u
VS
ICONNO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.50u · ICON −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-09-16T15:40:11+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-09-16T17:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-09-16T18:40:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T20:10:59+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T22:26:13+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T23:11:24+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-16T23:56:31+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-09-17T00:41:36+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-09-17T01:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T15:40:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T17:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T18:40:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T20:10:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T22:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T23:11:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-16T23:56:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-17T00:41:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-17T01:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-16T15:40:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T17:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T18:40:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T20:10:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.3% · 2026-09-16T22:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-16T23:11:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-16T23:56:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-17T00:41:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-17T01:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T15:40:11+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-09-16T17:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:00IFS HRES: 68.4% · 2026-09-16T18:40:48+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T20:10:59+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:00IFS HRES: 67.4% · 2026-09-16T22:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-09-16T23:11:24+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-09-16T23:56:31+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-09-17T00:41:36+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-09-17T01:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 66.5% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00ICON: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:00ICON: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T15:40:11+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T17:10:32+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T18:40:48+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T20:10:59+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T22:26:13+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T23:11:24+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-16T23:56:31+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T00:41:36+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T01:26:59+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:0009-16 14:5509-16 20:5609-17 02:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T14:55:02+00:0072.8%69.7%88.7%67.4%22.3%
2026-09-16T15:40:11+00:0072.8%69.7%88.7%67.4%22.3%
2026-09-16T16:25:16+00:0072.8%69.7%88.7%68.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T17:10:32+00:0072.8%69.7%90.3%68.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T17:55:38+00:0072.8%69.7%90.3%68.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T18:40:48+00:0072.8%69.7%90.3%68.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T19:25:53+00:0074.4%69.7%90.3%67.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T20:10:59+00:0074.4%69.7%90.3%67.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T20:56:03+00:0074.4%69.7%90.3%67.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T21:41:08+00:0074.4%69.7%90.3%67.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T22:26:13+00:0074.4%69.7%90.3%67.4%16.9%
2026-09-16T23:11:24+00:0074.4%69.7%88.1%66.5%16.9%
2026-09-16T23:56:31+00:0074.4%69.7%88.1%66.5%16.9%
2026-09-17T00:41:36+00:0074.4%69.7%88.1%66.5%16.9%
2026-09-17T01:26:59+00:0071.2%69.7%88.1%66.5%16.9%
2026-09-17T02:12:09+00:0071.2%69.7%88.1%66.5%16.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 288%83.5°F3.4°F2026-09-16 12:000.7762
AIFS Single71%81.8°F4.1°F2026-09-16 18:000.5069
IFS Ensemble70%81.4°F3.7°F2026-09-16 00:000.4858
IFS HRES66%81.1°F3.8°F2026-09-16 12:000.4422
NWS forecast56%80.0°F3.1°F2026-09-16 14:000.3181
National Blend44%79.0°F3.3°F2026-09-16 06:000.1927
ICON17%76.1°F3.5°F2026-09-16 12:000.0286

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 16 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗