— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
71¢
hres
58¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
45¢
nbm
29¢
aifs
14¢
icon
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape