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KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
71%
HRES
58%
WN2
45%
AIFS
14%
ICON
14%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u
VS
ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS HRES: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00ICON: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:0055.9%67.8%44.0%67.0%61.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:0055.9%67.8%50.9%67.0%61.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:0055.9%67.8%50.9%67.0%61.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0055.9%67.8%50.9%67.0%61.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:0017.7%67.8%50.9%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:0017.7%67.8%50.9%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:0017.7%67.8%50.9%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0017.7%67.8%50.9%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0017.7%67.8%50.9%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:0017.7%71.1%45.2%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:0017.7%71.1%45.2%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:0017.7%71.1%45.2%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:0013.8%71.1%45.2%58.2%13.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:0013.8%71.1%45.2%58.2%13.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble71%76.9°F7.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%73.7°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%72.0°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend29%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single14%67.1°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON14%65.8°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗