— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
21¢
icon
6¢
eps
6¢
aifs
4¢
ndfd
2¢
wn2
1¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape