KSMF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.0¢Risks 11.00u

WN2NO 89.0¢Risks 89.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +89.00u · WN2 −89.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00	9.5%	5.4%	4.3%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	9.6%	5.4%	4.4%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	9.6%	6.5%	4.4%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	9.6%	6.5%	4.4%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	9.6%	6.5%	4.4%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	9.6%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	9.6%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	9.6%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	1.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	2.1%	40.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	2.1%	28.8%	9.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	11.5%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:38+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.7%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.5%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.5%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	10.2%	6.5%	1.5%	28.9%	9.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	1.5%	21.1%	6.3%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	1.5%	21.1%	6.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	1.5%	21.1%	6.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	1.5%	21.1%	6.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	1.5%	21.1%	6.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	4.3%	6.0%	0.9%	21.1%	6.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	4.3%	6.0%	0.9%	21.1%	6.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	4.3%	6.0%	0.9%	21.1%	6.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	4.3%	6.0%	0.9%	21.1%	6.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	21%	79.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	73.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	74.8°F	6.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	75.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	73.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗