— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
26¢
aifs
17¢
icon
13¢
eps
4¢
wn2
3¢
nbm
3¢
ndfd
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape