KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

17%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.6¢Risks 14.55u

WN2NO 85.5¢Risks 85.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.45u · WN2 −85.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	2.2%	27.3%	20.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	2.2%	27.3%	20.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	2.2%	27.3%	20.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	2.2%	27.3%	20.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	2.2%	27.3%	20.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	19.2%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.4%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.9%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.9%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	21.7%	3.3%	3.9%	27.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	20.3%	3.3%	3.9%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	20.3%	3.3%	3.9%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	20.3%	3.3%	3.9%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	20.3%	3.3%	3.9%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	20.3%	3.3%	3.9%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	20.3%	2.9%	1.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	20.3%	2.9%	1.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	20.3%	2.9%	1.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	22.4%	2.9%	1.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	22.4%	2.9%	1.7%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:57+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	1.7%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	1.7%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	1.7%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	21.1%	35.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	4.0%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	22.4%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	5.9%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	17.1%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	12.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	17.1%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	12.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	17.1%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	12.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	17.1%	2.8%	6.2%	26.2%	12.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00	17.1%	4.3%	3.1%	26.1%	12.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	17.1%	4.3%	3.1%	26.1%	12.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	17.1%	4.3%	3.1%	26.1%	12.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	17.1%	4.3%	3.1%	26.1%	12.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	17.0%	4.3%	3.0%	26.1%	12.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	26%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	78.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	75.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 19:28 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗