daily prop · St. Louis, MO · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Oct 17

St. Louis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

settled · observed 59

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 60°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 93¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		90¢
nbm		59¢
ndfd		56¢
aifs		53¢
wn2		50¢
rrfs		40¢
hres		36¢
icon		16¢
hrrr		12¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-11T15:11:51+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:09:57+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape