KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

53%

50%

36%

16%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.20u · ICON −47.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:51+00:00	52.3%	87.9%	43.9%	73.4%	50.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	52.3%	87.9%	43.9%	73.4%	50.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	52.3%	87.9%	43.9%	73.4%	50.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:02+00:00	52.3%	87.9%	52.6%	73.4%	50.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	52.3%	87.9%	52.6%	73.4%	50.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	52.3%	87.9%	52.6%	73.4%	50.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	52.6%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	52.6%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	52.6%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	52.6%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	52.6%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:14+00:00	70.8%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:23+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:39+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	74.5%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	75.9%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	75.9%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	79.1%	87.9%	75.9%	69.8%	67.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:34+00:00	82.1%	87.9%	75.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00	82.1%	87.9%	75.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	82.1%	87.9%	75.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	82.1%	87.9%	75.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	82.1%	87.9%	75.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	82.1%	87.9%	81.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	82.1%	93.5%	81.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	82.1%	93.5%	81.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	73.7%	93.5%	81.9%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	73.6%	93.5%	81.8%	71.6%	75.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	60.7%	85.4%	47.4%	34.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	60.7%	85.4%	47.4%	34.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	60.7%	85.4%	52.6%	34.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	60.7%	85.4%	52.6%	34.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	60.7%	85.4%	52.6%	34.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	60.7%	85.4%	52.6%	34.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	52.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	52.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	52.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	52.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	57.8%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:23+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	51.3%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	57.0%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	57.0%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	57.0%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	57.0%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	57.0%	85.4%	48.7%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	57.0%	88.5%	51.4%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	57.0%	88.5%	51.4%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	57.0%	88.5%	51.4%	33.9%	16.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:42+00:00	59.0%	88.5%	51.4%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	59.0%	88.3%	51.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	59.0%	89.4%	51.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	59.0%	89.5%	51.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	59.0%	89.5%	51.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	59.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	59.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	59.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	52.7%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	52.7%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	57.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	53.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	53.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	53.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	53.0%	89.5%	50.0%	36.3%	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	63.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.8010
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3481
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	53%	59.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2809
WeatherNext 2	50%	59.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	36%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1318
ICON	16%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0259

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗