— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
32¢
nbm
25¢
wn2
18¢
icon
18¢
eps
8¢
hres
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F23¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape