KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

18%

18%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

HRESNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.30u · HRES −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:07+00:00	40.9%	31.9%	20.5%	31.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	40.9%	31.9%	41.2%	31.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	40.9%	31.9%	41.2%	31.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	40.9%	31.9%	41.2%	31.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	40.9%	31.9%	41.2%	31.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:43+00:00	50.0%	31.9%	41.2%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	50.0%	31.9%	41.2%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	50.0%	31.9%	41.2%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	50.0%	31.9%	41.2%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	50.0%	14.3%	30.7%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	50.0%	14.3%	30.7%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	50.0%	14.3%	30.7%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	50.0%	14.3%	30.7%	47.0%	57.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	44.7%	14.3%	30.8%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	44.7%	15.4%	30.8%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	44.7%	15.4%	30.8%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	44.7%	15.4%	30.8%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	44.7%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	44.7%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	44.7%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	22.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	22.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	22.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	24.9%	47.0%	22.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	24.9%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:54+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	33.2%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	22.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	35.1%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	18.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	35.1%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	18.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	35.1%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	18.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	35.1%	15.4%	40.5%	38.6%	18.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:39+00:00	35.1%	15.4%	40.5%	5.9%	18.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	35.1%	8.0%	18.5%	5.9%	18.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	35.1%	8.0%	18.5%	5.9%	18.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	35.1%	8.0%	18.5%	5.9%	18.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	31.4%	8.0%	18.5%	5.9%	18.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	31.5%	8.0%	18.4%	5.9%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	72.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	70.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	69.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗