— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
16¢
ndfd
15¢
nbm
6¢
wn2
2¢
hres
2¢
eps
1¢
icon
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F25¢
74–75°F31¢
76–77°F21¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape