KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

ICONNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.80u · ICON −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:40+00:00	58.5%	13.1%	25.8%	26.4%	13.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:55+00:00	58.5%	6.3%	32.2%	26.4%	13.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	58.5%	6.3%	32.2%	26.4%	13.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	58.5%	6.3%	32.2%	26.4%	13.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	32.2%	26.4%	13.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	50.7%	6.3%	32.3%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:24+00:00	50.7%	6.8%	32.3%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	50.7%	6.8%	32.3%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	50.7%	6.8%	32.3%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	50.7%	6.8%	23.0%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	50.7%	6.8%	23.0%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	50.7%	6.8%	23.0%	26.4%	13.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	23.0%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	23.0%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	23.0%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	23.0%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	23.0%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	16.9%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	16.9%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	27.3%	6.8%	16.9%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	31.5%	6.8%	16.9%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	31.5%	6.8%	16.9%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	31.5%	6.8%	16.9%	4.7%	34.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	44.1%	1.5%	20.8%	8.4%	25.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	44.1%	1.5%	20.8%	8.4%	25.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	44.1%	1.5%	22.7%	8.4%	25.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	44.1%	1.5%	22.7%	8.4%	25.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	44.1%	1.5%	22.7%	8.4%	25.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	44.1%	1.5%	22.7%	8.4%	25.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	22.7%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	22.7%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	22.7%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	22.7%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	30.8%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	27.6%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	27.6%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	27.6%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	27.6%	1.5%	18.4%	10.7%	32.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	25.9%	0.7%	11.2%	4.5%	19.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	25.9%	0.7%	11.2%	4.5%	19.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	25.9%	0.7%	11.2%	4.5%	19.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	25.9%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	19.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	25.9%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	19.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	25.9%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	19.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	14.8%	4.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	14.8%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:58+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	13.2%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	11.7%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:37+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	11.7%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	11.7%	7.3%	15.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:39+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	11.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	11.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	11.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	11.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	11.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	19.7%	1.4%	6.6%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	19.7%	1.4%	6.6%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	19.7%	1.4%	6.6%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	17.4%	1.4%	6.6%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	17.4%	1.4%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	17.4%	0.9%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	17.4%	0.9%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	17.4%	0.9%	6.0%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	17.4%	0.9%	6.0%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	17.4%	0.9%	6.0%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	17.4%	0.9%	6.0%	3.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	3.4%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	16.9%	0.9%	6.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	15.8%	0.9%	6.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	15.8%	0.9%	6.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	15.8%	0.9%	6.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	15.8%	0.9%	6.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	15.8%	0.8%	2.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	15.8%	0.8%	2.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	15.8%	0.8%	2.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	15.8%	0.8%	2.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	2.0%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	2.0%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	12.1%	0.7%	2.0%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	12.1%	0.7%	2.0%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	12.1%	0.7%	2.2%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	12.1%	0.7%	2.2%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	12.1%	0.7%	2.2%	2.4%	0.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.2%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.2%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.2%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.2%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.2%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	14.6%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	16.3%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	16.3%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	16.3%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	16.3%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	16.3%	0.7%	2.3%	1.9%	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	16%	76.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	73.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	71.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	70.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗