— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
84¢
wn2
82¢
rrfs
59¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
49¢
eps
48¢
icon
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F25¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape