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KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
84%
WN2
82%
HRES
49%
EPS
48%
ICON
46%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 65.0¢Risks 65.00u
VS
ICONNO 35.0¢Risks 35.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.00u · ICON −35.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00AIFS Single: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:0080.1%39.9%70.4%33.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0080.1%39.9%70.4%33.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0080.1%39.9%82.2%33.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0080.1%39.9%82.2%33.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0080.1%39.9%82.2%33.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0084.5%39.9%82.2%33.5%45.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0084.5%39.9%82.2%33.5%45.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0084.5%39.9%82.2%33.5%45.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:0084.5%39.9%82.2%33.5%45.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:0084.5%47.8%82.5%49.0%45.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0084.5%47.8%82.5%49.0%45.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0084.5%47.8%82.5%49.0%45.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0084.5%47.8%82.5%49.0%45.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single84%78.6°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%77.4°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%75.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES49%74.4°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%74.3°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON46%74.1°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗