— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
25¢
aifs
20¢
wn2
17¢
hres
8¢
icon
5¢
eps
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F25¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape