KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

17%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.0¢Risks 6.02u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 43.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.97u · EPS −43.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:27+00:00	52.8%	12.8%	53.1%	23.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	52.8%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	52.8%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	52.8%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	54.4%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	54.4%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	54.4%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	54.4%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	54.4%	12.8%	49.2%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	54.4%	4.0%	45.7%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	54.4%	4.0%	45.7%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	54.4%	4.0%	45.7%	23.2%	38.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	55.2%	4.0%	45.7%	15.5%	38.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	55.1%	4.0%	45.7%	15.5%	39.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:58+00:00	54.4%	4.5%	51.7%	22.9%	40.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	54.4%	4.5%	50.0%	22.9%	40.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:37+00:00	54.4%	4.5%	50.0%	22.9%	40.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	54.4%	4.5%	50.0%	22.9%	40.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:39+00:00	42.0%	4.5%	50.0%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	42.0%	4.5%	50.0%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	42.0%	4.5%	50.0%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	42.0%	4.5%	50.0%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	42.0%	4.5%	50.0%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	42.0%	10.4%	34.9%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	42.0%	10.4%	34.9%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	42.0%	10.4%	34.9%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	37.4%	10.4%	34.9%	15.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	37.3%	10.4%	34.9%	15.0%	17.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	32.8%	6.7%	19.7%	11.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	32.8%	6.7%	25.6%	11.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	32.8%	6.7%	25.6%	11.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	32.8%	6.7%	25.6%	11.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	32.8%	6.7%	25.6%	11.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	27.1%	6.7%	25.6%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	27.1%	6.7%	25.6%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	27.1%	6.7%	25.6%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	27.1%	6.7%	25.6%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	17.4%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	17.4%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	17.4%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	17.4%	7.5%	4.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	20.4%	3.7%	17.4%	7.5%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	72.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	71.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	73.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗