daily prop · St. Louis, MO · Plains & South Central · settles Thu Oct 22

St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Thu Oct 22

5¢

american +2098 · decimal 21.98

on the tape

81°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 81°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		32¢
wn2		16¢
rrfs		9¢
hres		7¢
ndfd		5¢
nbm		4¢
eps		4¢
icon		4¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F2¢

70–71°F6¢

72–73°F16¢

74–75°F25¢

76–77°F26¢

78–79°F17¢

80–81°F7¢

82–83°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape