KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.8¢Risks 17.85u

ICONNO 82.2¢Risks 82.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.15u · ICON −82.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:57+00:00	48.6%	14.8%	42.7%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	48.6%	14.8%	42.7%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	48.6%	14.8%	42.7%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	48.6%	14.8%	42.7%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	48.6%	14.8%	42.7%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	48.6%	14.8%	39.0%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	48.6%	8.9%	39.0%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	48.6%	8.9%	39.0%	14.2%	2.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	57.0%	8.9%	39.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	57.0%	8.9%	39.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	57.0%	8.6%	39.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	57.0%	8.6%	39.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	57.0%	8.6%	46.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	57.0%	8.6%	46.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	57.0%	8.6%	46.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	57.0%	8.6%	46.1%	14.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	46.1%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	46.1%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	46.1%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	46.1%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	52.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	45.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	45.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	45.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	45.8%	8.6%	45.3%	18.7%	50.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	16.9%	1.6%	8.2%	3.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	16.9%	1.6%	11.9%	3.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	16.9%	1.6%	11.9%	3.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	16.9%	1.6%	11.9%	3.0%	3.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	23.4%	1.6%	11.9%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	23.4%	1.6%	11.9%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	23.4%	1.6%	11.9%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	23.4%	1.6%	11.9%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	23.4%	1.6%	11.9%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.8%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.8%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.8%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	18.1%	2.4%	11.8%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	11.7%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	11.7%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	11.7%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	11.7%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	7.2%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	7.2%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	18.0%	2.4%	7.2%	5.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	7.2%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	7.2%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	7.2%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	7.2%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	7.2%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	20.6%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	10.6%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	28.7%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	2.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	19.4%	3.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00	31.9%	4.4%	15.9%	6.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	31.9%	4.4%	15.9%	6.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	31.9%	4.4%	15.9%	6.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	31.9%	4.4%	15.9%	6.8%	3.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	31.9%	4.4%	15.8%	6.8%	3.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	31.9%	4.4%	15.8%	6.8%	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	32%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	77.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	74.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗