— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
73¢
aifs
66¢
icon
58¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
40¢
nbm
33¢
hres
27¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F35¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape