KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

58%

40%

27%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

HRESNO 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.35u · HRES −50.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	76.7%	91.9%	87.9%	54.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	76.7%	69.1%	70.6%	54.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	76.7%	69.1%	70.6%	54.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	76.7%	69.1%	70.6%	54.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	70.6%	54.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	70.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	70.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	70.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	70.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	72.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	72.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	65.2%	69.1%	72.5%	54.4%	46.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	72.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	72.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	72.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	72.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	72.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	50.7%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	67.7%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	74.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	74.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	55.0%	69.1%	74.5%	28.5%	56.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	38.3%	69.1%	74.5%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	38.3%	69.1%	74.5%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	38.3%	69.1%	74.5%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	38.3%	69.1%	74.5%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	38.3%	69.1%	74.5%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	38.3%	69.1%	72.6%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	38.3%	40.5%	72.6%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	38.3%	40.5%	72.6%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	65.8%	40.5%	72.6%	26.7%	58.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	65.8%	40.5%	72.6%	26.7%	58.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	86.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	85.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	85.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	82.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	79.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗