daily prop · Tampa, FL · Southeast · settles Wed Oct 21

Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +5852 · decimal 59.52

on the tape

88°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 88°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		17¢
wn2		17¢
hres		5¢
ndfd		4¢
eps		2¢
icon		2¢
rrfs		1¢
nbm		1¢
hrrr		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

76–77°F1¢

78–79°F8¢

80–81°F24¢

82–83°F34¢

84–85°F24¢

86–87°F8¢

88–89°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape