KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.5¢Risks 4.77u

ICONNO 90.5¢Risks 45.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.23u · ICON −45.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:37+00:00	50.7%	27.4%	66.5%	30.1%	31.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	50.7%	17.7%	39.7%	30.1%	31.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	50.7%	17.7%	39.7%	30.1%	31.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	50.7%	17.7%	39.7%	30.1%	31.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	39.7%	30.1%	31.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	39.8%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	39.8%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	39.8%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	39.8%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	42.1%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	42.1%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	37.4%	17.7%	42.1%	30.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	42.1%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	42.1%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	42.1%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	42.1%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	42.1%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	24.4%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	36.7%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	44.4%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	44.4%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	27.9%	17.7%	44.4%	11.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	14.9%	17.7%	44.4%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	14.9%	17.7%	44.4%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	14.9%	17.7%	44.4%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	14.9%	17.7%	44.4%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	14.9%	17.7%	44.4%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	14.9%	17.7%	39.9%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	39.9%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	39.9%	10.9%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.9%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.9%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.9%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.9%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.0%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.0%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.0%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	36.9%	3.3%	39.0%	11.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	39.0%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	39.0%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	39.0%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	39.0%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	14.9%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	42.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	12.5%	3.3%	31.9%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	28.0%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	28.0%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	28.0%	15.9%	24.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	16.2%	0.1%	28.0%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	16.2%	0.1%	28.0%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	16.2%	0.3%	28.0%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	16.2%	0.3%	28.0%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	16.2%	0.3%	28.0%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	16.2%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	16.2%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	16.2%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	24.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	31.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	31.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	31.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	39.4%	10.3%	31.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	39.4%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	15.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:30+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	33.1%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	35.8%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	35.8%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	16.7%	0.3%	35.8%	18.4%	31.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	13.7%	0.3%	35.8%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	13.7%	0.3%	35.8%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	13.7%	0.3%	35.8%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	13.7%	0.3%	35.8%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	13.7%	0.3%	35.8%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	13.7%	2.6%	25.9%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	13.7%	2.6%	25.9%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	13.7%	2.6%	25.9%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	17.4%	2.6%	25.9%	16.4%	26.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	17.4%	2.6%	26.0%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	26.0%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	26.0%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	24.3%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	24.3%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	24.3%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	17.4%	2.9%	24.3%	16.4%	26.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	13.3%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	24.3%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	22.6%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	22.6%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	22.6%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	12.4%	2.9%	22.6%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	22.6%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	22.6%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	22.6%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	22.6%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	13.6%	2.4%	18.7%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	13.6%	2.4%	18.7%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	13.6%	2.4%	18.7%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	13.6%	2.4%	18.7%	10.5%	5.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	10.7%	2.9%	18.7%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	10.7%	2.9%	18.7%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	10.7%	1.8%	18.7%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	10.7%	1.8%	18.7%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	10.7%	1.8%	15.0%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	10.7%	1.8%	15.0%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	10.7%	1.8%	15.0%	10.5%	5.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	9.9%	1.8%	16.4%	8.6%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	9.9%	1.8%	16.4%	8.6%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	9.9%	1.8%	16.4%	8.6%	6.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	15.5%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	15.5%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	15.5%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	17.3%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	1.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	17.3%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	1.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	17.3%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	1.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	17.3%	2.3%	16.7%	5.4%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	84.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	82.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗