— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
93¢
wn2
92¢
aifs
73¢
icon
71¢
hres
64¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F30¢
84–85°F19¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape