KTPA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

73%

71%

64%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.25u · HRES −21.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:30+00:00	73.4%	94.7%	91.8%	46.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	73.4%	94.7%	89.5%	46.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	73.4%	94.7%	89.5%	46.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	73.4%	94.7%	89.5%	46.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	75.9%	94.7%	89.5%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	75.9%	94.7%	89.5%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	75.9%	94.7%	89.5%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	75.9%	94.7%	89.5%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	75.9%	94.7%	89.5%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	75.9%	91.6%	92.7%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	75.9%	91.6%	92.7%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	75.9%	91.6%	92.7%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	74.7%	91.6%	92.7%	50.0%	85.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	74.7%	91.6%	92.7%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	74.7%	92.8%	92.7%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	74.7%	92.8%	92.7%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	74.7%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	74.7%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	74.7%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	74.7%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	91.1%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	73.5%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.4%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.0%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.0%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.0%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	72.9%	92.8%	90.0%	50.0%	80.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	76.6%	92.8%	90.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	76.6%	92.8%	90.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	76.6%	92.8%	90.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	76.6%	92.8%	90.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:39+00:00	76.6%	96.7%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	76.6%	96.7%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	76.6%	96.7%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	76.6%	96.7%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	75.4%	96.7%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	75.4%	96.7%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.3%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	91.0%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	75.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	73.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	73.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	73.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	73.4%	93.3%	92.1%	64.2%	71.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	82.5°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	85.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	82.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	81.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗