— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
82¢
wn2
74¢
aifs
72¢
hres
67¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
48¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape