KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

74%

72%

67%

48%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

ICONNO 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.90u · ICON −34.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	67.4%	79.3%	76.5%	36.7%	67.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	67.4%	79.3%	78.3%	36.7%	67.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	67.4%	79.3%	78.3%	36.7%	67.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	67.4%	79.3%	78.3%	36.7%	67.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	67.4%	79.3%	78.3%	36.7%	67.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	57.3%	79.3%	78.3%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	57.3%	79.3%	78.3%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	57.3%	79.3%	78.3%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	57.3%	79.3%	78.3%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:39+00:00	57.3%	83.5%	77.9%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	57.3%	83.5%	77.9%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	57.3%	83.5%	77.9%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	57.3%	83.5%	77.9%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	60.9%	83.0%	78.0%	52.4%	52.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	65.8%	76.2%	71.1%	68.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	65.8%	76.2%	71.1%	68.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	65.8%	76.2%	71.1%	68.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	65.8%	76.2%	71.1%	68.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	70.7%	76.2%	71.1%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	70.7%	76.2%	71.1%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	70.7%	76.2%	71.1%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	70.7%	76.2%	71.1%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	70.7%	76.2%	71.1%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	70.7%	84.1%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	70.7%	84.1%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	70.7%	84.1%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	67.2%	84.1%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	67.2%	84.1%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	71.2%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	77.5%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	77.5%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	77.5%	64.8%	53.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	77.5%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	77.5%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	77.5%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	77.5%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	77.5%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	70.1%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.0%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	68.6%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	46.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	72.2%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	48.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	72.2%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	48.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	72.2%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	48.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	72.2%	83.0%	76.7%	43.1%	48.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	72.2%	81.8%	74.1%	67.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	72.2%	81.8%	74.1%	67.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	72.2%	81.8%	74.1%	67.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	72.2%	81.8%	74.1%	67.0%	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	83.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	84.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗