— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
87¢
wn2
81¢
icon
74¢
hres
70¢
aifs
64¢
nbm
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,316 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.851 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape