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KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
WN2
81%
ICON
74%
HRES
70%
AIFS
64%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 75.6¢Risks 75.55u
VS
AIFSNO 24.4¢Risks 24.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.45u · AIFS −24.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00ICON: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:0010-19 11:2010-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:0061.0%87.6%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0061.0%87.6%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0061.0%87.6%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:0062.9%87.6%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0063.0%87.6%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:0063.0%86.8%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:0063.0%86.8%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:0063.0%86.8%69.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:0063.0%86.8%79.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:0063.0%86.8%79.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:0063.0%86.8%79.5%52.5%36.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:0064.3%86.8%79.5%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:0064.3%86.8%79.5%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:0064.3%86.8%79.5%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:0064.3%86.8%79.5%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:0064.3%86.8%79.5%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:0064.3%86.8%80.6%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:0064.3%86.8%80.6%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:0064.3%86.8%80.6%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:0064.3%86.8%80.6%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:0064.3%86.8%80.6%70.1%74.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:0064.3%86.8%80.6%70.1%74.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%83.4°F2.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%84.9°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON74%87.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES70%83.9°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single64%82.6°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗