— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
97¢
hres
70¢
eps
68¢
aifs
63¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
44¢
icon
35¢
wn2
29¢
hrrr
27¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F21¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F9¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape