KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

63%

35%

29%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.3¢Risks 49.35u

WN2NO 50.7¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:44+00:00	87.4%	74.2%	84.9%	75.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	87.4%	61.5%	84.9%	75.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	87.4%	61.5%	84.9%	75.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:13+00:00	83.7%	61.5%	84.9%	75.6%	8.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	83.6%	61.5%	84.8%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:53+00:00	83.6%	61.5%	84.8%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	83.6%	57.6%	84.8%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	83.6%	57.6%	81.7%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:17+00:00	83.6%	57.6%	81.7%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	83.6%	57.6%	81.7%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	83.6%	57.6%	81.7%	75.6%	8.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	81.7%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	81.7%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	81.7%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-12T22:14:00+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	81.7%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:15+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:53+00:00	84.0%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	84.0%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	84.0%	57.6%	84.3%	89.1%	79.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	53.0%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	53.0%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	53.0%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	53.0%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	53.0%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	53.0%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	40.4%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	71.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	40.4%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	71.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	40.4%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	71.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	40.4%	50.9%	76.4%	78.2%	71.2%
2026-10-14T10:35:13+00:00	40.4%	50.9%	76.4%	60.9%	71.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00	40.4%	69.6%	24.8%	60.9%	71.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	40.4%	69.6%	24.8%	60.9%	71.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	40.4%	69.6%	24.8%	60.9%	71.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	40.4%	69.6%	24.8%	60.9%	71.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	40.5%	69.6%	24.8%	60.9%	71.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:45+00:00	54.8%	68.7%	19.7%	84.3%	64.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	54.8%	68.7%	19.7%	84.3%	64.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	54.8%	68.7%	28.8%	84.3%	64.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	54.8%	68.7%	28.8%	84.3%	64.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	54.8%	68.7%	28.8%	84.3%	64.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	37.2%	68.7%	28.8%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	37.2%	68.7%	28.8%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	37.2%	68.7%	28.8%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	37.2%	68.7%	28.8%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	37.2%	68.7%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	37.2%	68.7%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	37.2%	75.5%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	37.2%	75.5%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	56.1%	75.5%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	56.1%	75.5%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	56.1%	72.8%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	56.1%	72.8%	16.7%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	56.1%	72.8%	17.3%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	56.1%	72.8%	17.3%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	56.1%	72.8%	17.3%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	56.1%	72.8%	17.3%	61.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	17.3%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	17.3%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	17.3%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	17.3%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	26.4%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	27.7%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	22.9%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	31.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	20.0%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	20.0%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	20.0%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	20.0%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	20.0%	72.8%	25.9%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	20.0%	67.2%	14.3%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	20.0%	67.2%	14.3%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	20.0%	67.2%	14.3%	84.6%	59.9%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	38.1%	67.2%	14.3%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	14.3%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	14.3%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	14.3%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	14.3%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	38.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	15.7%	70.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	15.7%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	60.1%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	33.9%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	48.8%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	48.8%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	70.4%	67.1%	48.8%	86.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	80.5%	67.1%	48.8%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	80.5%	67.1%	48.8%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	80.5%	67.1%	48.8%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	80.5%	67.1%	48.8%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	80.5%	67.1%	48.8%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	80.5%	80.0%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	80.5%	80.0%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	80.5%	80.0%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	48.0%	80.0%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	48.0%	79.5%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	48.0%	79.3%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	48.0%	79.3%	43.6%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	48.0%	79.3%	23.9%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	48.0%	79.3%	23.9%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	48.0%	79.3%	23.9%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	48.0%	79.3%	23.9%	95.4%	46.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	23.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	23.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	23.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	23.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	37.4%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	22.9%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	39.8%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	39.8%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	39.8%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	53.9%	79.3%	39.8%	87.9%	31.6%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	52.0%	79.3%	39.8%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	52.0%	79.3%	39.8%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	52.0%	79.3%	39.8%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	52.0%	79.3%	39.8%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	52.0%	68.5%	34.0%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	52.0%	68.5%	34.0%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	52.0%	68.5%	34.0%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	52.0%	68.5%	34.0%	85.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	38.0%	68.2%	34.0%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:19+00:00	38.0%	68.2%	34.0%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	38.0%	68.5%	34.0%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	38.0%	68.5%	34.0%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	38.0%	68.5%	20.5%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	38.0%	68.5%	20.5%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	38.0%	68.5%	20.5%	85.3%	13.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	20.5%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	20.5%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	20.5%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	20.5%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	20.5%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	57.1%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	62.9%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	62.9%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	62.9%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	62.9%	68.5%	29.1%	69.6%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	85.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗