— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
82¢
ndfd
59¢
hres
49¢
eps
48¢
nbm
44¢
aifs
43¢
wn2
24¢
icon
17¢
hrrr
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F21¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F15¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape