KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

48%

43%

24%

17%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.9¢Risks 32.90u

ICONNO 67.1¢Risks 67.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.10u · ICON −67.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:40+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	72.7%	82.0%	73.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	82.0%	73.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	82.0%	73.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	82.0%	73.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	82.0%	73.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	73.9%	38.8%	65.6%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	73.9%	35.3%	62.9%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	73.9%	35.3%	62.9%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	73.9%	35.3%	62.9%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	73.9%	35.3%	62.9%	46.4%	67.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	64.7%	35.3%	62.8%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	64.7%	33.0%	62.8%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	64.7%	33.0%	62.8%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	64.7%	33.0%	62.8%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	64.7%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	64.7%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	64.7%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	58.6%	46.4%	68.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	58.6%	68.2%	68.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	61.1%	68.2%	68.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	61.1%	68.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	68.1%	33.0%	61.1%	68.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	38.1%	33.0%	61.1%	68.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	38.1%	33.0%	61.1%	68.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	12.1%	47.2%	58.7%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	12.1%	47.2%	58.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	12.1%	47.2%	58.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	12.1%	47.2%	58.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	12.1%	47.2%	58.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	26.0%	50.0%	12.1%	47.2%	58.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	12.1%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	12.1%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	12.1%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	12.1%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	12.1%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	9.0%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	9.0%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	9.0%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	38.9%	50.0%	9.0%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	38.9%	50.0%	9.0%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	38.9%	50.0%	9.0%	74.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	10.8%	48.9%	16.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	23.5%	48.9%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	23.5%	48.9%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	42.9%	47.9%	23.5%	48.9%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
IFS HRES	49%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2391
IFS Ensemble	48%	85.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2294
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1945
AIFS Single	43%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1840
WeatherNext 2	24%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0552
ICON	17%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0286

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗