— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
85¢
wn2
78¢
hres
73¢
icon
72¢
nbm
63¢
eps
59¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F15¢
86–87°F11¢
88–89°F7¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape