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KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
85%
WN2
78%
HRES
73%
ICON
72%
EPS
59%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 71.8¢Risks 71.80u
VS
EPSNO 28.2¢Risks 28.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.20u · EPS −28.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 04:0610-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:0075.2%82.0%88.0%82.8%77.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0075.2%82.0%88.0%82.8%77.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0075.2%82.0%83.7%82.8%77.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:0075.2%82.0%83.7%82.8%77.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0075.2%82.0%83.7%82.8%77.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:0085.0%82.0%83.7%82.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0085.0%82.0%83.7%82.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0085.0%82.0%83.7%82.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:0085.0%82.0%83.7%82.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:0085.0%58.6%78.0%72.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:0085.0%58.6%78.0%72.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:0085.0%58.6%78.0%72.8%71.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0085.0%58.6%78.0%72.8%71.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single85%85.1°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 278%83.1°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES73%83.5°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON72%83.6°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend63%81.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%80.5°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:06 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗