— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
40¢
aifs
33¢
wn2
26¢
icon
9¢
ndfd
8¢
eps
6¢
nbm
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F17¢
88–89°F11¢
90–91°F6¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,367 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.476 vs climatology 8.842.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-19T07:34:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape