KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 21 · 14:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

33%

26%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.6¢Risks 22.60u

EPSNO 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.40u · EPS −77.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T14:23:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:14+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	25.0%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	25.0%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	25.0%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	25.0%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	19.2%	17.1%	25.0%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	19.2%	11.1%	9.2%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	19.2%	11.1%	9.2%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	19.2%	11.1%	9.2%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00	17.8%	11.1%	9.2%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	17.8%	11.1%	9.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T15:14:04+00:00	17.8%	11.9%	9.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	17.8%	11.9%	9.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	17.8%	11.9%	9.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	17.8%	11.9%	21.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	17.8%	11.9%	21.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	17.8%	11.9%	21.1%	33.8%	0.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	27.7%	11.9%	21.1%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	27.7%	11.9%	21.1%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	27.7%	11.9%	21.1%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	27.7%	11.9%	21.1%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	27.7%	11.9%	21.1%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	27.7%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	27.7%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	27.7%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	21.6%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	14.4%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	40.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	20.8%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	20.8%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	20.8%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	20.8%	12.2%	16.3%	27.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	20.8%	2.5%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	20.8%	2.5%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	20.8%	2.5%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	20.8%	2.5%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	20.7%	2.5%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	20.7%	2.5%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00	20.7%	2.3%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00	20.7%	2.3%	8.5%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T17:03:33+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T19:19:04+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	18.1%	20.4%
2026-10-20T20:04:17+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-20T20:49:30+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-20T21:34:35+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-20T22:19:42+00:00	16.7%	2.3%	7.6%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-20T23:04:52+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-20T23:50:07+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T00:35:19+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T01:20:58+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T02:06:30+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T02:51:48+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T03:36:58+00:00	25.8%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T04:23:52+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T05:09:11+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T05:54:19+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T06:39:30+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	19.4%	28.2%
2026-10-21T07:26:20+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T08:12:11+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T08:57:24+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T09:42:37+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	13.7%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T10:28:11+00:00	32.8%	2.3%	13.7%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T11:13:52+00:00	32.8%	5.5%	25.5%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T11:59:02+00:00	32.8%	5.5%	25.5%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T12:44:14+00:00	32.8%	5.5%	25.5%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T13:29:45+00:00	32.8%	5.5%	25.5%	39.7%	8.6%
2026-10-21T14:23:03+00:00	32.8%	5.5%	25.5%	39.7%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	40%	88.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	87.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	86.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	81.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	83.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗