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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 89°F

Houston, TX · 20260920 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 19 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 20 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 21 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 28 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
AIFS
94%
HRES
89%
ICON
88%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS94%Sep 18 · 18:00 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTC
EPS98%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 15:15 UTCSep 18 · 15:15 UTC
HRES89%Sep 18 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTC
ICON88%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES250.9125522.812.19+2.19 / -2.19

ICON / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 97°F · Sep 24 · 06:32 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 21 · 09:04 UTC97°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260920:D1