SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 66°F

Seattle, WA · 20260930 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 25 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 30 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 01 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 08 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

57%

54%

52%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	54%	Sep 25 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 07:29 UTC	Sep 25 · 07:29 UTC
EPS	52%	Sep 24 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 15:06 UTC	Sep 24 · 15:06 UTC
HRES	57%	Sep 24 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 22:23 UTC	Sep 24 · 22:23 UTC
ICON	84%	Sep 25 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:22 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:22 UTC
WN2	66%	Sep 24 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:53 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:53 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2	AIFS	50	0.60120	30.06	19.94	-30.06 / +30.06
HRES	EPS	25	0.54360	13.59	11.41	-13.59 / +13.59

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 65°F · Oct 04 · 08:42 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 01 · 12:09 UTC	65°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260930:D5