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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 66°F

Seattle, WA · 20261001 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 26 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 01 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 02 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 09 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
84%
WN2
71%
ICON
57%
EPS
54%
HRES
44%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS84%Sep 26 · 00:00 UTCSep 26 · 07:24 UTCSep 26 · 07:24 UTC
EPS54%Sep 25 · 00:00 UTCSep 25 · 15:17 UTCSep 25 · 15:17 UTC
HRES44%Sep 26 · 00:00 UTCSep 26 · 07:24 UTCSep 26 · 07:24 UTC
ICON57%Sep 26 · 00:00 UTCSep 26 · 04:33 UTCSep 26 · 04:33 UTC
WN271%Sep 25 · 18:00 UTCSep 26 · 05:04 UTCSep 26 · 05:04 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON320.7037022.529.48+9.48 / -9.48
WN2EPS500.6238031.1918.81+18.81 / -18.81

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 68°F · Oct 05 · 09:00 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 02 · 12:21 UTC68°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20261001:D5