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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 65°F

Seattle, WA · 20261002 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 29 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 02 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 03 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 10 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
95%
HRES
85%
AIFS
84%
WN2
77%
EPS
67%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS84%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 07:26 UTCSep 29 · 07:26 UTC
EPS67%Sep 28 · 00:00 UTCSep 28 · 15:13 UTCSep 28 · 15:13 UTC
HRES85%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 07:26 UTCSep 29 · 07:26 UTC
ICON95%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 04:33 UTCSep 29 · 04:33 UTC
WN277%Sep 28 · 18:00 UTCSep 29 · 05:05 UTCSep 29 · 05:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSWN2250.8033020.084.92+4.92 / -4.92
HRESEPS430.7631032.8110.19+10.19 / -10.19

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 71°F · Oct 06 · 08:06 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 03 · 12:35 UTC71°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20261002:D3