KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

75%

29%

26%

10%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

WN2NO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.40u · WN2 −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	21.9%	46.4%	0.9%	5.2%	0.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	21.9%	48.6%	0.9%	5.2%	0.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	21.9%	48.6%	4.8%	5.2%	0.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	21.9%	48.6%	4.8%	5.2%	0.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	21.9%	48.6%	4.8%	5.2%	0.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	21.9%	48.6%	4.8%	5.2%	0.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	4.8%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	4.8%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	4.8%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	4.8%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	32.0%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	10.6%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	15.2%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	15.2%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	15.2%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	33.4%	48.6%	15.2%	76.1%	11.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00	34.8%	48.6%	15.2%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	34.8%	48.6%	15.2%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	34.8%	48.6%	15.2%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	34.8%	48.6%	15.2%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	34.8%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	34.8%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	34.8%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	34.8%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	12.4%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	25.7%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	38.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	10.3%	30.2%	38.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	10.3%	14.5%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	8.5%	14.5%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	8.5%	14.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	30.1%	54.9%	8.5%	14.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	19.8%	54.9%	8.5%	14.5%	38.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	19.8%	54.9%	8.5%	14.5%	38.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	35.5%	85.0%	7.7%	77.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	35.5%	85.0%	7.7%	77.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	35.5%	85.0%	7.7%	77.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	35.5%	85.0%	7.7%	77.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	35.5%	85.0%	7.7%	77.0%	47.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	37.5%	85.0%	7.7%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	37.5%	85.0%	7.7%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	37.5%	85.0%	7.7%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	37.5%	85.0%	7.7%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	37.5%	85.0%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	37.5%	85.0%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	37.5%	85.5%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	37.5%	85.5%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	31.2%	84.9%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	31.2%	84.9%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	6.9%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	78.2%	30.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	31.2%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	7.3%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	30.3%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	17.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	27.2%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	27.2%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	27.2%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	27.2%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	27.2%	84.7%	14.4%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	27.2%	83.1%	10.2%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	27.2%	83.1%	10.2%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	27.2%	83.1%	10.2%	67.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	28.9%	83.1%	10.2%	74.9%	25.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	28.9%	83.0%	10.2%	74.9%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6889
IFS HRES	75%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5610
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3181
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
AIFS Single	29%	61.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0835
ICON	26%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0660
WeatherNext 2	10%	59.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0104

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗