KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

75%

29%

26%

10%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

WN2NO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.40u · WN2 −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	8.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	63.4%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	46.6%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	58.4%	28.6%	9.3%	—	31.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	45.6%	64.3%	—	31.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	38.7%	5.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	35.2%	52.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	2.1%	45.0%	53.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	1.8%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	0.7%	25.5%	20.2%	—	9.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	24.4%	31.4%	62.7%	—	7.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	36.1%	34.3%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	42.3%	44.2%	57.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	28.2%	54.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	39.8%	54.1%	51.0%	—	29.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	56.3%	54.2%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	34.1%	65.9%	31.1%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	14.8%	48.9%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	19.1%	48.8%	26.0%	—	20.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	46.4%	46.4%	27.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	37.7%	48.8%	30.9%	24.6%	24.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	26.9%	43.6%	33.7%	—	26.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	23.0%	36.8%	22.0%	19.1%	24.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	47.2%	27.6%	23.2%	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	41.4%	29.3%	24.5%	20.2%	24.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	33.8%	21.3%	20.2%	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	37.6%	25.0%	13.4%	23.8%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	45.1%	26.7%	20.3%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6889
IFS HRES	75%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5610
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3181
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
AIFS Single	29%	61.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0835
ICON	26%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0660
WeatherNext 2	10%	59.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0104

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗