KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

52%

17%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.2¢Risks 34.25u

ICONNO 65.8¢Risks 65.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.75u · ICON −65.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:56+00:00	21.5%	65.9%	11.2%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	21.5%	65.9%	10.4%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	21.5%	65.9%	10.4%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	21.5%	65.9%	10.4%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	28.3%	65.9%	10.4%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	28.3%	65.9%	10.4%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	28.3%	65.9%	10.4%	52.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	17.7%	43.9%	10.1%	11.1%	64.7%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	17.7%	43.9%	10.1%	11.1%	64.7%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	17.7%	43.9%	10.1%	11.1%	64.7%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	17.7%	43.9%	10.1%	11.1%	64.7%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	17.7%	43.9%	10.1%	11.1%	64.7%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	17.7%	43.9%	10.1%	11.1%	64.7%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	10.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	10.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	10.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	10.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	10.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	2.2%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T04:01:54+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.1%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.3%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.3%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	8.7%	43.9%	1.3%	10.8%	2.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:57+00:00	1.2%	43.9%	1.3%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	1.2%	43.9%	1.3%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	1.2%	43.9%	1.3%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	1.2%	43.9%	1.3%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	1.2%	43.9%	1.3%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	1.2%	43.9%	0.2%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	1.2%	32.6%	0.2%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	1.2%	32.6%	0.2%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	11.8%	32.6%	0.2%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	11.9%	32.8%	0.2%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	14.4%	62.5%	2.5%	55.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	14.4%	62.5%	2.5%	55.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	14.4%	62.5%	2.5%	55.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	14.4%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	14.4%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	14.4%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	6.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	6.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	6.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	3.7%	55.3%	6.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	3.7%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	15.6%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	1.3%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	8.5%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	8.5%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	16.8%	62.5%	8.5%	52.1%	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3906
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
IFS HRES	52%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2714
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1945
AIFS Single	17%	61.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0282
WeatherNext 2	8%	61.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0072
ICON	6%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0036

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗