KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

52%

17%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.2¢Risks 34.25u

ICONNO 65.8¢Risks 65.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.75u · ICON −65.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	4.7%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	58.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	50.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	33.6%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	44.4%	18.0%	4.7%	—	19.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	31.7%	50.0%	—	19.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	25.1%	2.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	21.8%	36.7%	—	5.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.7%	29.3%	36.9%	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.6%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.2%	13.6%	10.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.0%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	12.4%	17.2%	44.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	20.3%	19.0%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	24.7%	26.3%	38.5%	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	14.0%	34.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	21.9%	34.0%	31.2%	—	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	35.5%	33.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.9%	44.5%	14.9%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	5.4%	27.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.2%	27.0%	11.0%	—	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	24.4%	24.4%	11.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	17.4%	25.6%	13.0%	9.5%	9.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.3%	20.9%	14.3%	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.9%	15.7%	7.4%	6.1%	8.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	22.1%	9.8%	7.6%	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	17.2%	10.2%	7.8%	5.9%	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.0%	6.0%	5.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.4%	7.1%	2.9%	6.6%	2.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	7.3%	4.9%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3906
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
IFS HRES	52%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2714
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1945
AIFS Single	17%	61.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0282
WeatherNext 2	8%	61.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0072
ICON	6%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0036

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗